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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts believe the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.